Friday, 25 April 2014

Monte Carlo pricing of Exotic Options in F#

I've recently completed all exercises for the MOOC Monte Carlo methods in Finance, ran by the University of Madrid on Iversity. The course was excellent, both in its content and delivery.

The course started off by refreshing probability theory (cdf, pdf etc) and quickly moved onto generating random numbers, Brownian motion and stochastic differential equations followed by the pricing of options and calculating risk.
The final week's homework is on the Monte Carlo calculation of a portfolio's risk, using copulas with Student's t distribution, but as that week's homework is still running I'm blogging about the penultimate week's homework.

This homework is about pricing path dependent options, and demonstrating how using a control variate can provide a better result for the same number of iterations (better meaning less error, i.e. with a smaller standard deviation). The homework further shows that when pricing a barrier
option, using an up-and-out option as the control variate produces better results than using a European option as the control variate.

The course delivery was extremely slick. The videos were filmed specially, this wasn't a rehashing of a lecture in front of students (as seems to happen in some other online courses). The lectures were short, and to the point, managing to cram a lot of information in with zero fluff. I really appreciated this as I was watching on a daily commute.

The assessments were by multiple choice question, but with only one attempt, so it did end up actually feeling like a challenge. The questions were a mixture of maths and coding, with the balance moving more towards coding as the weeks went on.
The code was delivered in Matlab, which I had to get reacquainted to after a decade break. The main downside I found is that I ended up doing a fair bit of copy-paste coding, so completed some of the homeworks in .NET instead. I personally found the coding easy, and found the maths more challenging (in a good way).

Now, for the code - the F# code is available here: https://gist.github.com/taumuon/11302896

Apart from the Monte Carlo code, the fact that in F# all functions are in the curried form means that composing the payoff functions using partial function application is beautiful. This would be lambda hell to replicate in C#.

If this course runs again I'd wholeheartedly recommend it.

Friday, 24 January 2014

MOOCs

I've just enrolled on Iversity's Monte Carlo Methods in Finance course, and have converted some of week 1's Matlab demo code over to F# and Deedle: https://gist.github.com/taumuon/8602365

I spent the latter half of last year diving into various online courses. I completed Coursera's Mathematical Methods for Quantitative Finance, and also followed along with a number of other courses to varying levels of completeness.

I completed three weeks assignments of Udacity's Cuda programming course.  Week three was painful due to an error in the reference code, and week 4 was crashing due to a memory exception. I was using a GPU emulator in Ubuntu, and decided that it would be easier with real hardware. I watched the remaining videos and found the parallel algorithms explanations useful.

I completed the first two weeks of Coursera's Scientific Computing. These were maths exercises, which I enjoyed and that's what inspired me to do the Maths Methods for Quant Finance course. The Matlab exercises I was planning to do in F#, but left the course when other attendees were complaining that to complete the homework to the correct numerical accuracy you needed the exact version of Matlab the instructor was using, and they were unable to use Gnu Octave.

It is great that there's so much free high standard material available. The fixed timescale nature of the course is a bit annoying - if work or life gets in the way one week it may make it impossible to catch up with the remainder of the course. I may get around to trying a course again next time it comes around though.

Saturday, 17 August 2013

RunKeeper Visualisations

My last post described how I'm using the Twitter API to receive tweets off the live stream.

Since then, I've used the API to filter for tweets containing the #runkeeper hashtag, and used that to scrape the user's activity from the RunKeeper site (including the GPS points from the user's exercise). I've stored that information in a MongoDB, which has allowed me to do some simple visualisation:


The above video (best played at 720p) shows activities plotted against time of day (the sun overhead in the video indicates midday for that region).

I haven't charted this to confirm, but to my eyes it looks like amount of exercise activity peaks around sunrise and sunset, with almost none at night time (which isn't really a surprise).

For the curious, this is what the colour of the dots indicate:

let createSphere (latitude:float) (longitude:float) (activityType:string=
    let color = match activityType with
                | "RUN" -> "Red"
                | "WALK" -> "Green"
                | "BIKE" -> "Blue"
                | "MOUNTAINBIKE" -> "Orange"
                | "SKATE" -> "Yellow"
                | "ROWING" -> "Cyan"
                | "HIKE" -> "Brown"
                | "OTHER" -> "Black"
                | _ -> "Black"
    String.Format(spherelatitudelongitudecolor)

On a local scale, the actual GPS traces are of interest:






Activities are present in the more-populated regions of the UK. The blue and orange traces indicating cycling and mountain biking activities are clearly visible.

NOTE: if you think the map looks weird, it doesn't have the usual aspect ratio - I'm not using a Mercator projection do plot the points, but am simply plotting the longitude and latitude linearly.

On an even smaller scale, landmarks around London are visible:














The GPS data contains altitude information, so there are more interesting visualisations that could be done, including generating contour plots. Also, the above only contains three days worth of data - with a larger data set it would be possible to plot to determine whether activities peak on a weekend etc.

Implementation

Acknowledgements:

The 3D plot of the globe was drawn using POV-Ray. The 3D globe model was from grabcad, with the converted to a POV-Ray model using PoseRay.

The UK outline was obtained from the NOAA.

The code was implemented in F# (which was a pleasure to get back to after the C++ I've been doing recently). I did try the MongoDB.FSharp library to store my data records, but they failed to deserialise from the database. In any case, I wanted more control over the data types saved (I wanted to store the GPS data as GeoJson3DGeographicCoordinates, with the first point stored separately as a GeoJson2DGeographicCoordinates with an index on this value). I could have created .NET classes and used the BSON serializer, but it seemed more effort than writing directly to the DB (and this is about the only time I've seen the benefit of C# implicit conversions, but I can live without them in F#).

Why use the Twitter API, and why not scrape the RunKeeper site directly? That's because of times - the RunKeeper website displays the activity time, but it is displayed in local time, and it's not clear whether that's in the user's timezone, or the timezone of the activity. It seems cleaner to instead assume that the tweet has been posted as soon as the activity is finished and store that time as UTC (this assumption may of course not be true, but the results seem realistic).

Show me the Code!

The code's not in a bad shape, but I would like to tidy it up a little before releasing it into the world. I'm busy with other things at the moment, but if I get much interest I can go ahead and do that...

Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Sipping from the twitter stream

I’ve been playing around with connecting to twitter’s streaming API, and displaying a live stream of tweets returned.
To do this, I was originally using DotNetOpenAuth, along with the HttpClient, which worked fine for the sample stream, but would return authentication errors for the filtered stream. I looked at the HTML message in fiddler2, and the oauth parameters weren’t ordered, which twitter requires. Instead, I’m using TwitterDoodle, which uses HttpClient.
The C#5/.NET4.5 async/await code is quite elegant – it’s not CPU intensive so it’s fine running on the UI thread, without blocking. My first instinct prior to C#5 would have been to use RX for this, but now if I’m doing something simple I’d stick to async/await, only using RX if doing something more complex like buffering or batching.

    private async void ProcessTweets()
    {
      using (var t = new TwitterConnector())
      {
        var response = await t.GetSampleFirehoseConnection();
        var res = await response.Content.ReadAsStreamAsync();
        using (var streamReader = new StreamReader(resEncoding.UTF8))
        {
          // streamReader.EndOfStream can block, so instead check for null
          while (!cts.IsCancellationRequested)
          {
            var r = await streamReader.ReadLineAsync();
            if (r == null) { return; }
            ProcessTweetText(r);
          }
        }
      }
    }
 
    private void ProcessTweetText(string r)
    {
      if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(r))
      {
        var tweetJToken = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject<dynamic>(r);
        var tweetObj = tweetJToken["text"];
        if (tweetObj != null)
        {
          var tweetText = tweetObj.ToString();
          viewModel.Items.Add(tweetText);
        }
      }
    }

The equivalent F# async code obviously looks quite similar, with the added goodness of Type Providers. Time dependent, I am planning to do some more analysis of tweets which would be a good fit for F#.

type tweetProvider = JsonProvider<"SampleTweet.json"SampleList=true>
 
type MainWindowViewModel() =
  inherit ViewModelBase()
  let items = new ObservableCollection<string>()
  member x.Items
    with get () = items
  member x.ProcessTweet tweet =
    let tweetParsed = tweetProvider.Parse(tweet)
    match tweetParsed.Text with
    | Some(v->  x.Items.Add v
    | None -> ()
  member x.ProcessTweets =
    let a = async {
      use t = new TwitterConnector()
      let! response = t.GetSampleFirehoseConnection() |> Async.AwaitTask
      let! result = response.Content.ReadAsStreamAsync() |> Async.AwaitTask
      use streamReader = new StreamReader(resultEncoding.UTF8)
      let rec processTweetsAsync (s:StreamReader=
        async {
          let! r = s.ReadLineAsync() |> Async.AwaitTask
          // streamReader.EndOfStream can block, so instead check for null
          if r <> null then
            x.ProcessTweet r
            return! processTweetsAsync s
        }
      do! processTweetsAsync streamReader
    }
    a |> Async.StartImmediate
  member x.GoCommand = 
    new RelayCommand ((fun canExecute -> true), 
      (fun action -> x.ProcessTweets))

Monday, 1 July 2013

Picking with DirectX 11 and Bullet Physics

I updated the falling cubes demo to separate out the rendering and physics into separate WinRT components - see the WinRT subfolder under http://github.com/taumuon/Taumuon.Game . The performance of this wasn't noticeably different when consumed by a WP8 DirectX application, but I then switched over to a "DirectX with XAML application", so that the application was hosted via C#, and consumed the WinRT components via a DrawingSurfaceBackgroundGrid, and performance fell off a cliff.

I created the C# host as I intended to put as much game logic as I could into an F# portable library, and the only way to do this is to have a C# hosting application assembly as WP8 apps, unlike Windows Store apps, don't allow WinRT(P) components to be created in anything other than C++.

Instead, of fighting the performance issues, I decided that it would be better to implement the game logic purely in C++ - see the WinRT subfolder under http://github.com/taumuon/Taumuon.Game . This replaces most uses of the C++/CX extensions with standard C++ types, and implements picking, loosely based off http://halogenica.net/ray-casting-and-picking-using-bullet-physics

It gives a childish sense of satisfaction to do something as simple as destroy a wall of bricks so that the wall collapses.

Once I get time, the next step is to make the wall collapse more realistically by adding spring constraints between adjacent blocks, and to remove those springs once they are stretched beyond some elastic limit.

Saturday, 18 May 2013

Bullet Physics demo DirectX C++ app on Windows Phone 8

I’ve finally gotten around to updating my original Windows Store Bullet Physics demo (http://taumuon-jabuka.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/bullet-physics-and-directx-11-on.html) to build for the Windows 8 final release.

While I was at it, I also got it working for Windows Phone 8 – code is on github https://github.com/taumuon/WP8-Bullet. There weren’t many changes. In building Bullet for ARM, I got around lots of parameter alignment issues by defining BT_USE_DOUBLE_PRECISION. This was the quickest thing to do, and may have performance implications but the performance running on my Nokia Lumia 920 seems encouraging. It wouldn’t have been a much bigger change to instead see if ARM is defined.

 

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

ViewGene now has mapping

The newly-released version of my genealogy/family tree Windows 8 app now has Bing Maps integration, which allows the migration paths of all ancestors to be plotted.

I wanted to see visually how my ancestors moved, after researching how my ancestors moved from villages in the 17th century into towns, and then larger towns.

I’d love to see anyone else’s migration paths!

The below is just a made up sample – I’ll share my map after sanitising the data.

ViewGeneMapping

Try it in the Windows Store.